New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon boosts support for National by 5% points

 

New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon boosts support for National by 5% points – highest since March 2020 (pre-pandemic)

• Now 50% of New Zealand electors, up 6% points since November, support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government – its highest level of support since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.

Support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government increased by 6% points to 50% in December – its highest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.

The increase was driven by support for National rising 5% points to 31.5%, to its highest since March 2020 (37%), while support for Act NZ was up 1% point to a new record high of 18.5%. Support for the Opposition Maori Party fell 2% points to 1% in December. 

New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon took over leadership of National on November 30, 2021 from former leader Judith Collins and today’s result shows that the change is already receiving a positive response from the New Zealand electorate.

In contrast, support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 2.5% points to 44% in December – the lowest combined level of support for the Government since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took office just over four years ago. Labour support was down 0.5% points to 35.5% and support for the Greens decreased by 2% points to 8.5%.

A small minority of 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 0.5% points to 2%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party down 0.5% points to 0.5% in December.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 967 electors during December. 

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 6%, up 0.5% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 3.5pts to 98 in December – the lowest since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister over four years ago in late 2017 

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 3.5pts in December to 98 to be in negative territory for the first time since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office over four years ago in October 2017.

In December only 42.5% (down 3.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 44.5% (unchanged) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’. 

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down by 0.6pts to 97.7 is slightly lower than the latest Government Confidence Rating and is now below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 100.1 on January 17-23, 2022 as the highly contagious Omicron variant spread quickly around a re-opened Australia. 

Women 18-49 favour Labour/Greens while women 50+ and men (all ages) favour National/Act NZ 

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst younger women aged 18-49 at 59% compared to only 34% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 50+ support is split almost down the middle with National/ Act NZ on 49% just ahead of Labour/ Greens on 48.5%.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of only 1% of women aged 18-49 and 1.5% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with support flowing strongly to National/ Act NZ for men of all ages. In December 59.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to only 37% that supported Labour/ Greens. The difference is even greater for men aged 50+ with 60.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 31% supporting Labour/ Greens.

There is also a clear age divide amongst men with those aged 18-49 most likely to support Act NZ (30%) ahead of National (28%) and Labour (24.5%). In contrast, for men aged 50+ support for National is at 39.5%, clearly ahead of Labour (27%) and more than double support for Act NZ (19.5%).

The differences in support appear to relate to the ages of the two party leaders with new National Leader Christopher Luxon (aged 51) appealing to men aged 50+ while Act NZ Leader David Seymour (aged 38) has a stronger appeal to younger men aged 18-49.

The Maori Party attracts only 1.5% support from men of all ages.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”. 

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8889-nz-national-voting-intention-december-2021-202201310600